Food for thought

Forget market-caps, here’s how we classify stocks

Posted by | Food for thought, Investing Framework | No Comments

Mega-Caps, Large-Caps, Mid-Caps, Small-Caps, Micro-Caps, Nano-Caps… As if the business analysis wasn’t complicated enough, we have divided the universe based on size as well. But does size really matter? The answer will be a big yes if you are running a mutual fund, or some other regulated fund like a pension fund, which has to 1). Comply with SEBI guideline and stick to fund mandate by investing in the universe of stocks which comply with that and 2). Ensure enough liquidity so as to be able to enter and exit with minimal impact cost. But the same isn’t true for individual investors and in fact is their biggest advantage (See Jatin Khemani’s presentation on ‘Individual Investor’s Real Edge – TIA 28th Jan 2017’). Generally speaking, large caps have been around for …

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Anti-Fragile – 20 Companies that are century-old

Posted by | Food for thought, Investing Framework | One Comment

We should prefer investing in businesses that are hard to kill. But how do we assess that? In 1950s average life cycle of a business was around 80 years, today it is less than 20 years. Clearly, entrepreneurship is more like a deadly roller coaster than just a smooth sail. Disruption has always been prevalent but what has changed is the speed and complexity with which things get disrupted. Whenever one talks about disruption, one has to bring up anti-fragility and how important it is to have in a business. Such a business has the potential not just to survive the test of times but thrive in chaos. Businesses that have a very little rate of change, low dependence on suppliers/government and are run conservatively have a higher chance of …

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[Video] ‘The Art of Selling Stocks’ Presentation at IC 2018, Goa by Jatin Khemani

Posted by | Food for thought, Investing Framework, Stocks | No Comments

Jatin Khemani, CEO of Stalwart Advisors presented on ‘The Art of Selling Stocks‘ at Investors Carnival, Goa, 4-8th October 2018. Having a sound exit strategy is crucial to protect gains for value investors. This presentation covers Stalwart Advisors’ framework developed over the years through own mistakes as well as vicarious learning along with numerous case studies to help investors understand the nuances better. The conference was covered by BloombergQuint. The video of the talk along with slides can be accessed below: Link to Video: The Art of Selling Stocks Presentation Slides:  

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Are We In A Bear Market?

Posted by | Food for thought, Indian Markets, Investing Framework, Stocks | 2 Comments

You might be feeling it’s an odd title given CNX Nifty (which consists of India’s top 50 companies) is merely 3.7% below its all-time high of 11,171, hit in Jan 2018. Median drop in Nifty 50 Stocks from their 52-week high though is 17%, but the index is holding up thanks to a few heavyweights like HDFC Duo & Reliance hitting lifetime highs. But what about broader markets? Following is some eye-popping performance data about the 1,584 stocks listed on BSE with a market capitalization of more than Rs 100 Cr. as on 25th June 2018: Fall from 52-week high  (Source: Ace Equity, Stalwart Advisors Research) No. of Stocks >= 60% 106 50% – 59% 175 40% – 49% 289 30% – 39% 359 20% – 29% 336 The median fall for these …

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Should you invest in IPOs?

Posted by | Food for thought, Indian Markets, Investing Framework, Investing wisdom, Investment Gurus, IPO | No Comments

There are two kinds of Initial Public Offering (IPO) – 1). Fresh Issue where new shares are issued and money raised goes to the company which can be used for growth or retire debt and 2). Offer for Sale where existing investors (promoters and private equity) sell their shares and money goes to them rather than the company. Unlike earlier times when most IPOs were a fresh issue in order to raise growth capital, now most issues these days are Offer for Sale. During rapid growth phase companies go to private equity firms for capital and after achieving reasonable scale comes up with an IPO at rich valuations, leaving hardly anything on the table for new investors, to offer an exit to private equity. IPO is a seller’s market, they …

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Am I Ready?

Posted by | Food for thought, Investing wisdom | No Comments

There is clearly a wild rush towards equity, some are doing this out of FOMO (Fear Of Missing Out), whereas some are left with no other choice given relative unattractiveness of hitherto popular asset classes of Bank Deposits, Real Estate and Gold. The magnitude of this irrational exuberance can be gauged by reading chats in  some whatsapp groups, comments on investing blogs or discussion forums like MMB (one such snapshot shared at the end of this short post). Stalwart Advisors doesn’t have a sales team (& hence no sales target or incentive to mis-sell). Rather we have transparently put all the information on our website and let investors decide for themselves. If prospects contact us over email or telephone, we also ask lot of questions to gauge whether they are ready or not, and accordingly counsel them. Yet, there …

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Is Real Estate Turning Around?

Posted by | Food for thought, Indian Markets, Industries | One Comment

If past history was all that is needed to play the game of money, the richest people would be librarians. — Warren Buffet What happens to a sector after a prolonged slowdown? – Mean Reversion? What happens to a sector when Government channelizes its resources behind it? – Grows Fast? What happens to a sector when there is a huge pent-up demand? – Tailwind? And what happens when all three coincide? Government seems to be seriously working towards achieving its stated goal of ‘Housing For All’ by 2022 which would require 20 mn new houses. Credit Linked Subsidy Scheme (CLSS) is a material development in that direction. Under this scheme, interest subsidy of 4 per cent on housing loans up to Rs 9 lakh for those who have the income …

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Indian Markets at Cross Roads

Posted by | Food for thought, Indian Markets, Investing Framework | 2 Comments

Disclaimer: We are totally into bottom-up stock-picking and are amateurs when it comes to making sense out of Macros. This post is just a small attempt to share our thought process regarding current market environment and some interesting observations Imagine a conversation between two investors regarding a hot mid-cap which has recently done pretty well. The optimist might justify buying or holding on to it saying ‘Boss look at this new CEO who seems like an intelligent fanatic, has fire-in-the-belly to make it a global giant, look at his execution quality over last three years and the earnings potential of this business given humungous size of the market opportunity’ The cautious investor however would differ by pointing out to current valuations being close to life-time high and the potential irrational …

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[Video] Talk delivered at FIL Alumni Meet, Pune – July 2016

Posted by | Business Models, Food for thought, Industries, Investing Framework, Stocks | 15 Comments

Recently I had the privilege of sharing my thoughts on investing with my fellow FIL Alumni at Flame University, Pune. The video, along with the presentation, is shared below. I talked about ‘India’s Consolidation Wave'; how the organized players stand a great chance to grow amidst an on-going shift in consumer preferences towards standardised and branded offerings. Video_India’s Consolidation Wave Notes on Video (Time 31:11) 00:00 Introduction 01:00 Drivers of Long-term Returns 03:00 Case Studies – Page Industries & Relaxo Footwear 04:30 Defining Unorganised Sector 05:50 Industry Research Filters Applied 06:40 List of Industries with high potential 24:45 Case Study – Decorative Paints (1980 – 2016) 26:48 GST: A big enabler 29:00 Value Migration Vs. Consolidation Wave 30:25 Summary Presentation_India’s Consolidation Wave For convenient reading switch to full screen mode – click the second …

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What makes Thyrocare a great business?

Posted by | Food for thought, Scuttlebutt | 9 Comments

What makes Thyrocare a great business? I probably first got to know about Thyrocare Technologies Limited (a company into Healthcare Diagnostic) through a 2010 ET article titled ‘PE firm buys 30% in Thryocare as comapany seeks to tap radiology segment‘ and later in 2012 when Thyrocare had second round of funding  ‘Norwest Venture Partners invests Rs 120 cr in Thyrocare‘ As I read more about the company I found some very interesting pointers: First Indian laboratory to have an IT enabled, 24×7, fully automated diagnostic laboratory Set up covering over 2,00,000 sq. ft. floor space (a centralized laboratory) that ensures error free processing of over 40,000 specimens and over 2,00,000 Clinical Chemistry investigations per night. (mind-boggling numbers..isn’t it?) The unmatched speed factor is achieved through a combination of air-cargo logistics and IT enabled, …

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