[Video] Talk delivered at FIL Alumni Meet, Pune – July 2016

By

Jatin Khemani

Recently I had the privilege of sharing my thoughts on investing with my fellow FIL Alumni at Flame University, Pune. The video, along with the presentation, is shared below. I talked about ‘India’s Consolidation Wave’; how the organized players stand a great chance to grow amidst an on-going shift in consumer preferences towards standardised and branded offerings.

Video_India’s Consolidation Wave

Notes on Video (Time 31:11)

  • 00:00 Introduction
  • 01:00 Drivers of Long-term Returns
  • 03:00 Case Studies – Page Industries & Relaxo Footwear
  • 04:30 Defining Unorganised Sector
  • 05:50 Industry Research Filters Applied
  • 06:40 List of Industries with high potential
  • 24:45 Case Study – Decorative Paints (1980 – 2016)
  • 26:48 GST: A big enabler
  • 29:00 Value Migration Vs. Consolidation Wave
  • 30:25 Summary

Presentation_India’s Consolidation Wave


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16 responses to “[Video] Talk delivered at FIL Alumni Meet, Pune – July 2016”

  1. Yash Jhaveri Avatar
    Yash Jhaveri

    Great presentation. But can one ignore Return on Capital?

    Surely Unit Economics & Return on Capital matter from a shareholder return perspective. To contrast the examples in your presentation – I would say lets look at an exception, Retail.

    If one were to time travel 10-12 years into the past, one would have thought the unorganized to organized trend would play out in the retailing industry (especially in cities). And one would have been wrong about this – both from a market share & shareholder return perspective.

    My point is, should one not be wary of businesses with high capital costs and / or high fixed costs despite the high growth opportunity?

    I would think that hair & beauty care, amusement parks, cold storage, gyms, real estate fall in the high capital cost and/or high fixed cost bucket.

    Reply
  2. Anshul Khare Avatar
    Anshul Khare

    Remarkably insightful presentation Jatin. Thanks for sharing.

    Reply
  3. Shyam Sekhar Avatar
    Shyam Sekhar

    I enjoyed your work Jatin. I have been a believer in most of what you have said for over a decade. Your structured work was a walk down memory lane.

    Reply
  4. Prashant Avatar
    Prashant

    That Thyrocare thing pricing is low because they have channels to use your data, hopefully, anonymously. They make money out of that data. Not implying anything just giving you reasons why the pricing so much differ between them and the local one.

    Reply
  5. Ashish Avatar
    Ashish

    Excellent presentation Jatin with insightful thematic research. Good luck surfing this wave, I’m sure you will come out on top!

    Ashish

    Reply
  6. Rishabh Adukia Avatar
    Rishabh Adukia

    Excellent presentation with thought provoking ideas
    Stock picking is becoming more complex

    Reply
  7. ks baalasubrahmaniyan Avatar
    ks baalasubrahmaniyan

    good

    Reply
  8. Maddy Avatar
    Maddy

    Excellent presentation. Great work. Thanks for sharing.

    Reply
  9. KR Avatar
    KR

    Jatin, thanks for the insightful presentation!

    Reply
  10. Rahul Avatar
    Rahul

    Very nice presentation and extremely data rich. Thanks for making it available for us.

    One observation though, based on my experience: I have found that industries that are rely on real-estate to offer their product or services (like eye-care, derma, other retail) will probably grow slower. Given how unorganized the real-estate sector is and the demand for scarce high quality locations, will make things slow-going for these companies, if not derail future projections. Another factor unlike China is we are geographically a much smaller country with as big a population, so the demand on land and land related resources from the population are significantly different. I am sure the potential in the industries I mentioned will happen, but we have to factor in the delays in their time-line.

    Reply
  11. Prashant Avatar
    Prashant

    Excellent presentation Jatin. what do u think about milk and milk products industry?

    Prashant

    Reply
  12. Kunal Thanvi Avatar
    Kunal Thanvi

    Great presentation Jatin!!. Thanks for sharing.

    Reply
  13. Bharat Mehta Avatar
    Bharat Mehta

    Great presentation. …
    GST…will be difinely a game changer.
    Consumpion( Discretion sectors has bright future…..
    With Indian demographic. ..
    Ur comments …

    Reply
  14. Sushil kumar Avatar
    Sushil kumar

    Very informative presentation. It truely justfy your effort in putting this presentation and time spent by viewers. God bless Jatin.

    Reply
  15. Hemant Aggarwal Avatar
    Hemant Aggarwal

    Great!!!!Really Knowledgeable and informative presentation.

    Reply
  16. Jigar Shah Avatar
    Jigar Shah

    Hi,

    Good work Jatin.

    It will be interesting to see the status of consolidation in the past three years post this presentation and post-implementation of GST.

    Reply

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