Recently I had the privilege of sharing my thoughts on investing with my fellow FIL Alumni at Flame University, Pune. The video, along with the presentation, is shared below. I talked about ‘India’s Consolidation Wave'; how the organized players stand a great chance to grow amidst an on-going shift in consumer preferences towards standardised and branded offerings.
Video_India’s Consolidation Wave
Notes on Video (Time 31:11)
- 00:00 Introduction
- 01:00 Drivers of Long-term Returns
- 03:00 Case Studies – Page Industries & Relaxo Footwear
- 04:30 Defining Unorganised Sector
- 05:50 Industry Research Filters Applied
- 06:40 List of Industries with high potential
- 24:45 Case Study – Decorative Paints (1980 – 2016)
- 26:48 GST: A big enabler
- 29:00 Value Migration Vs. Consolidation Wave
- 30:25 Summary
Presentation_India’s Consolidation Wave
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Great presentation. But can one ignore Return on Capital?
Surely Unit Economics & Return on Capital matter from a shareholder return perspective. To contrast the examples in your presentation – I would say lets look at an exception, Retail.
If one were to time travel 10-12 years into the past, one would have thought the unorganized to organized trend would play out in the retailing industry (especially in cities). And one would have been wrong about this – both from a market share & shareholder return perspective.
My point is, should one not be wary of businesses with high capital costs and / or high fixed costs despite the high growth opportunity?
I would think that hair & beauty care, amusement parks, cold storage, gyms, real estate fall in the high capital cost and/or high fixed cost bucket.
Remarkably insightful presentation Jatin. Thanks for sharing.
I enjoyed your work Jatin. I have been a believer in most of what you have said for over a decade. Your structured work was a walk down memory lane.
That Thyrocare thing pricing is low because they have channels to use your data, hopefully, anonymously. They make money out of that data. Not implying anything just giving you reasons why the pricing so much differ between them and the local one.
Excellent presentation Jatin with insightful thematic research. Good luck surfing this wave, I’m sure you will come out on top!
Ashish
Excellent presentation with thought provoking ideas
Stock picking is becoming more complex
good
Excellent presentation. Great work. Thanks for sharing.
Jatin, thanks for the insightful presentation!
Very nice presentation and extremely data rich. Thanks for making it available for us.
One observation though, based on my experience: I have found that industries that are rely on real-estate to offer their product or services (like eye-care, derma, other retail) will probably grow slower. Given how unorganized the real-estate sector is and the demand for scarce high quality locations, will make things slow-going for these companies, if not derail future projections. Another factor unlike China is we are geographically a much smaller country with as big a population, so the demand on land and land related resources from the population are significantly different. I am sure the potential in the industries I mentioned will happen, but we have to factor in the delays in their time-line.
Excellent presentation Jatin. what do u think about milk and milk products industry?
Prashant
Great presentation Jatin!!. Thanks for sharing.
Great presentation. …
GST…will be difinely a game changer.
Consumpion( Discretion sectors has bright future…..
With Indian demographic. ..
Ur comments …
Very informative presentation. It truely justfy your effort in putting this presentation and time spent by viewers. God bless Jatin.
Great!!!!Really Knowledgeable and informative presentation.